Showers end overnight, Friday looks breezy and warm, and severe storms arrive late

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FIRST, THIS IS WVTM 13 WEATHER. ROUND ONE IS NOW BEHIND US. SO NOW WE MOVE ON TO ROUND TWO. FRIDAY NIGHT A LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN AFTER 9 P.M. I DON’T THINK IT’S A 9 P.M. START TIME. WE’RE JUST LOOKING BEYOND 9:00 TOWARD MIDNIGHT FOR THAT FIRST ROUND TO MOVE IN. AND THEN ON SATURDAY, MULTIPLE WAVES OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. SATURDAY’S OUTLOOK LOOKS LIKE THIS. OUTLOOKS ARE NOT WATCHES. THEY’RE NOT WARNINGS. THEY ARE A WAY TO COMMUNICATE WHERE WE THINK RISKS ARE HIGHER OR A LITTLE BIT LOWER. BUT LOOK HOW THE RISK CHANGES HERE OVER EAST ALABAMA BETWEEN, SAY, BLOUNT AND ETOWAH OR SAINT CLAIR AND CALHOUN OR TALLADEGA AND CLAY, IS THERE REALLY A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE THREAT AT LINCOLN VERSUS BYNUM OR ASHVILLE VERSUS STEELE, OR SNEAD VERSUS DOUGLAS, OR OVER TOWARD MOUNTAIN TOP IN EGYPT VERSUS WHAT’S GOING ON IN CULLMAN AND BLOUNT AND JEFFERSON AND SHELBY COUNTIES? NO, I DON’T WANT YOU TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE COLORS HERE. THIS IS AN IDEA OF READY, SET, GO OUTLOOKS. WE JUST WANT YOU TO KNOW WHAT’S COMING. SET AND GO. THESE ARE THE TWO THAT I WANT YOU TO PAY MOST ATTENTION TO FOR THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF. BECAUSE TOMORROW IS STILL A READY DAY, AND YOU’RE PROBABLY GOING TO SEE THAT OUTLOOK CHANGE. IT MAY MOVE A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTH, MAY MOVE A LITTLE BIT TO THE SOUTH, BUT THE FORECAST IS NOT REALLY CHANGING THAT MUCH. WITH THAT OUTLOOK. THE WATCH WELL, THAT WILL COME A FEW HOURS BEFORE STORMS BEGIN. AND WARNINGS ARE THE MOST CRITICAL PART OF ALL THIS. WHEN IT’S TIME TO MOVE. TOMORROW IS NOT GOING TO BE STORMY ALL DAY LONG. FRIDAY’S HIGH CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES. WE’RE GOING TO WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY, EVEN INTO THE EVENING. I THINK WE’RE OKAY UP UNTIL ABOUT 9:00, THEN STRONG STORMS COME IN. WE’LL HAVE MULTIPLE WAVES SATURDAY. THAT’S GOING TO BE FOLLOWED UP BY SOME DRIER WEATHER SUNDAY, MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WELL, LET’S GO UP HERE AND LOOK WHAT’S GOING ON TO THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. A WAVE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS OVER MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS BY 5 TO 6:00 TOMORROW EVENING. NOTICE WE’RE STILL NICE AND QUIET HERE IN THE DEEP SOUTH. THEN IN COMES THAT LINE OF STORMS ABOUT 11 P.M. AND WHAT HAPPENS IN THIS ZONE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING CERTAINLY COULD AFFECT STORMS FARTHER NORTH. NOW, DO THESE STORMS ACTUALLY EXIST, OR IS THAT JUST A FACTOR THAT THIS FORECAST MODEL IS THROWING IN AS KIND OF A MONKEY WRENCH IN ALL OF THIS? BOTH OF THOSE ARE POSSIBLE. SO REMEMBER NOW WE’RE LOOKING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR THE THREAT OF THESE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE GOING TO DEVELOP BECAUSE OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT’S OUT HERE OVER CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. IT’S ALMOST MESMERIZING TO WATCH THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SEE THAT THERE’S NO SEVERE WEATHER UNDERNEATH THIS. IN AND OF ITSELF, THE SEVERE WEATHER COMES BECAUSE THERE’S A BALANCE OF THE STRENGTH OF THAT STORM SYSTEM WITH THE FUEL, THE INSTABILITY THAT’S GOING TO COME NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. SO AS THAT MOVES INTO PLACE, WE HAVE THE JET STREAM IN JUST THE RIGHT POSITION. THEN WE HAVE THE INSTABILITY COMING UP BECAUSE OF THAT STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. BUT IT’S NOT THAT LOW NECESSARILY. IT’S THIS ONE, A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BUT VERY INTENSE DEVELOPS OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI SATURDAY MORNING. AND IT TRACKS ON THAT CLASSIC PATH NEAR INTERSTATE 40 THAT PUTS ALABAMA IN A ZONE OF STRONG MID LEVEL WIND, UPPER LEVEL WIND AND A GOOD PIPELINE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. THAT’S WHY WE GET A SETUP THAT LOOKS SOMETHING LIKE THIS. THE SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER ALMOST UP AS HIGH AS IT GOES BY 2:00 SATURDAY AFTERNOON. REMEMBER THOSE MORNING STORMS? I THINK THE EFFECT OF THAT IS LONG GONE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BECAUSE WE JUST OPEN UP THAT WARM SECTOR AND PULL IT NORTHWARD. IN FACT, JEFFERSON, SHELBY, CHILTON, BIBB, TUSCALOOSA, SAINT CLAIR, CALHOUN, ETOWAH. REMEMBER HOW I SAID THERE’S REALLY NO DIFFERENCE IN THE OUTLOOK, WHETHER IT BE ENHANCED OR MODERATE, EVEN IF IT GOES HIGH? I DON’T WANT YOU TO PAY TOO CLOSE ATTENTION TO THAT, BECAUSE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO BE WHAT THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE, REGARDLESS OF WHAT THAT OUTLOOK SAYS. SO THERE ARE MORNING STORMS, ALL THAT STARTS TO LIFT NORTH. WE GET THE WARM SECTOR HERE. IN COME THE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY EVENING. SOME OF THESE COULD HAVE STRONG LONG TRACK TORNADOES WITH THEM. NOT ONLY DO WE END UP WITH THAT ISSUE, BUT THERE’S ALSO THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING. SOME PLACES ARE GOING TO GET MORE THAN 2 TO 3IN OF RAIN OUT OF ALL THIS. AND LOOK, I KNOW THIS HAS BEEN A LOT OF INFORMATION IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. ALL OF THIS IS ON WVTM 13.COM AND ON THE APP. WHAT I’M SAYING RIGHT NOW, THIS EXACT RECORDING WILL BE ON THAT APP. WE’RE GOING TO RECORD IT AND PUT IT ON THERE. SO YOU CAN SEE THAT AND YOU CAN SLOW IT DOWN. YOU CAN GO BACK AND LISTEN TO WHAT I’VE SAID. AND OF COURSE WE’RE GOING TO UPDATE THIS TOMORROW MORNING TOO WITH STEPHANIE. SHE’LL BE HERE EARLY TO MAKE SURE THAT YOU’VE GOT T

Showers end overnight, Friday looks breezy and warm, and severe storms arrive late

WVTM 13 LIVE DOPPLER RADAR | UPLOAD YOUR WEATHER PHOTOS | WAYS TO STAY SAFE | GET WEATHER NOTIFICATIONS | WATCHES VS WARNING | PREPARING YOUR HOME | STORM SHELTERSWVTM 13 meteorologists are tracking a severe weather outbreak in Alabama Friday night through Saturday with the chance of tornadoes, hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. ALERT DAYS: Friday, March 14, and Saturday, March 15 - a substantial threat of severe storms, including tornadoes, intense wind gusts and large hail SHORT-TERM AND ECLIPSE VIEWING Thursday's heavy storms dropped large hail in several Alabama communities, but the weather quiets down overnight into Friday morning. Lingering clouds from Thursday evening's downpours may obscure the view for some communities, but others will at least be able to see the eclipse at times between midnight and totality which occurs around 1:58 a.m. CDT.It's worth a try to view it even if you only get to see a glimpse between the clouds.Friday begins with a partly cloudy sky and a mild, damp feel to the air. Some patchy fog may develop where heavy downpour and hail fell on Thursday.In the afternoon, it's warm and breezy with high temperatures touching the upper 70s and lower 80s. A few occasional wind gusts will go as high as 25 miles per hour during the warmest part of the day between noon and 5 p.m.ALERT DAY: FRIDAYWe call a day an "Alert Day" when the weather could be life threatening and you need to be aware of the latest changes.Most of Friday will be sunny, breezy and warm with no major weather problems.Alabama's next round of threatening weather will move in from the west after 9 p.m. Friday.TIMING: A severe weather outbreak will be ongoing Friday afternoon and evening west of Alabama. Those storms will begin to move into the western counties of Alabama late Friday evening after 9 p.m. through about 7 a.m. Saturday.Since these storms will be in the area overnight, be sure you have a NOAA Weather Radio set, tuned and ready to receive a warning as well as the WVTM 13 app on your device to get the very latest alerts. You should not rely on an outdoor siren to wake you up during a warning. IMPACTS: Storms in Alabama late Friday night through 7 a.m. Saturday could bring hail, strong wind gusts, and a tornado could develop from any of the more intense storms in this line.Places like Hamilton, Carbon Hill, Jasper, Double Springs, Fayette, Tuscaloosa and Aliceville have a greater chance of severe storms compared to areas further east.ALERT DAY: SATURDAYWe call a day an "Alert Day" when the weather could be life threatening and you need to be aware of the latest changes.A significant severe weather outbreak is now likely in Alabama on Saturday, March 15. Hazards include tornadoes, strong wind gusts over 70 mph and large hail. Some tornadoes could be strong and long-track (more than 15-20 mile path length). TIMING: There will be a round of storms ongoing Saturday morning in North and Central Alabama. These storms could have an impact on afternoon development, but we do not think they will be enough to stop the threat later in the day.A rough estimate of a timeline would start our "main" event as early as 11 a.m. Saturday and it could last through 1 a.m. Sunday. This will be a long-duration severe weather threat. IMPACTS: A system like this has the potential to be a higher-end severe weather threat in Alabama and Mississippi. Both supercells (individual rotating severe storms) and a squall line are possible in this kind of environment. Forecast guidance suggests the risk strong tornadoes, EF-2 or higher.Be sure you have at least two reliable ways to get warnings and know what your plan will be if a severe storm approaches.Confidence: We have an unusually high confidence in the outcome of Saturday's storm system because of the balanced look it shows in forecast model guidance.The setup has been presented in a very consistent manner showing the right balance of fuel (CAPE, instability) interacting with a strongly "sheared" environment (wind speed increasing and changing direction above the ground).These factors will likely make Saturday's threat a "classic" severe weather setup for the South:(1) A strong jet stream in the right position.(2) A small but strengthening area of low pressure near Interstate 40 from Memphis to Nashville and a very strong "low level jet" (strong burst of wind about a mile above the surface).There are always things that can disrupt systems like this. Right now, we do not see anything that looks like a clear failure point. If it does come in balanced as we expect, this could be a very rough day in Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia.The "Energy Helicity Index" shows just how balanced this looks. What does it mean?Think of it this way: if storms are happening in an environment like this, they have a high chance of being severe and capable of producing tornadoes.These two rounds of rain and storms also provide some hefty rainfall totals, and it could be enough for some flooding with isolated spots getting more than 2 to 3 inches.AFTER THE STORMSThe weather behind Saturday’s storm system improves greatly by Sunday afternoon. It will be much cooler with a stiff northwest wind. Daytime highs will only reach the middle 60s on Sunday and Monday, and it will get as cold as the 30s with some scattered frost by Monday morning.Our next chance of substantial rain will come Wednesday of next week, but that one does not have a "severe" look to it.For the latest weather coverage for your area, click here. And stay updated with alerts in the WVTM 13 app. You can download it here.

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. —

WVTM 13 meteorologists are tracking a severe weather outbreak in Alabama Friday night through Saturday with the chance of tornadoes, hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.

ALERT DAYS: Friday, March 14, and Saturday, March 15 - a substantial threat of severe storms, including tornadoes, intense wind gusts and large hail

SHORT-TERM AND ECLIPSE VIEWING

Thursday's heavy storms dropped large hail in several Alabama communities, but the weather quiets down overnight into Friday morning.

WVTM 13

Lingering clouds from Thursday evening's downpours may obscure the view for some communities, but others will at least be able to see the eclipse at times between midnight and totality which occurs around 1:58 a.m. CDT.

Hearst Owned

It's worth a try to view it even if you only get to see a glimpse between the clouds.

Friday begins with a partly cloudy sky and a mild, damp feel to the air. Some patchy fog may develop where heavy downpour and hail fell on Thursday.

WVTM 13

In the afternoon, it's warm and breezy with high temperatures touching the upper 70s and lower 80s. A few occasional wind gusts will go as high as 25 miles per hour during the warmest part of the day between noon and 5 p.m.

WVTM 13

ALERT DAY: FRIDAY

We call a day an "Alert Day" when the weather could be life threatening and you need to be aware of the latest changes.

Most of Friday will be sunny, breezy and warm with no major weather problems.

Alabama's next round of threatening weather will move in from the west after 9 p.m. Friday.

WVTM 13

TIMING: A severe weather outbreak will be ongoing Friday afternoon and evening west of Alabama. Those storms will begin to move into the western counties of Alabama late Friday evening after 9 p.m. through about 7 a.m. Saturday.

Hearst Owned

Since these storms will be in the area overnight, be sure you have a NOAA Weather Radio set, tuned and ready to receive a warning as well as the WVTM 13 app on your device to get the very latest alerts. You should not rely on an outdoor siren to wake you up during a warning.

IMPACTS: Storms in Alabama late Friday night through 7 a.m. Saturday could bring hail, strong wind gusts, and a tornado could develop from any of the more intense storms in this line.

Places like Hamilton, Carbon Hill, Jasper, Double Springs, Fayette, Tuscaloosa and Aliceville have a greater chance of severe storms compared to areas further east.

ALERT DAY: SATURDAY

We call a day an "Alert Day" when the weather could be life threatening and you need to be aware of the latest changes.

A significant severe weather outbreak is now likely in Alabama on Saturday, March 15. Hazards include tornadoes, strong wind gusts over 70 mph and large hail. Some tornadoes could be strong and long-track (more than 15-20 mile path length).

TIMING: There will be a round of storms ongoing Saturday morning in North and Central Alabama. These storms could have an impact on afternoon development, but we do not think they will be enough to stop the threat later in the day.

A rough estimate of a timeline would start our "main" event as early as 11 a.m. Saturday and it could last through 1 a.m. Sunday. This will be a long-duration severe weather threat.

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Hearst Owned

IMPACTS: A system like this has the potential to be a higher-end severe weather threat in Alabama and Mississippi. Both supercells (individual rotating severe storms) and a squall line are possible in this kind of environment. Forecast guidance suggests the risk strong tornadoes, EF-2 or higher.

Hearst Owned

Be sure you have at least two reliable ways to get warnings and know what your plan will be if a severe storm approaches.

Confidence: We have an unusually high confidence in the outcome of Saturday's storm system because of the balanced look it shows in forecast model guidance.

The setup has been presented in a very consistent manner showing the right balance of fuel (CAPE, instability) interacting with a strongly "sheared" environment (wind speed increasing and changing direction above the ground).

These factors will likely make Saturday's threat a "classic" severe weather setup for the South:

(1) A strong jet stream in the right position.

WVTM 13

(2) A small but strengthening area of low pressure near Interstate 40 from Memphis to Nashville and a very strong "low level jet" (strong burst of wind about a mile above the surface).

WVTM 13

There are always things that can disrupt systems like this. Right now, we do not see anything that looks like a clear failure point. If it does come in balanced as we expect, this could be a very rough day in Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia.

The "Energy Helicity Index" shows just how balanced this looks. What does it mean?

Think of it this way: if storms are happening in an environment like this, they have a high chance of being severe and capable of producing tornadoes.

WVTM 13

These two rounds of rain and storms also provide some hefty rainfall totals, and it could be enough for some flooding with isolated spots getting more than 2 to 3 inches.

WVTM 13

AFTER THE STORMS

The weather behind Saturday’s storm system improves greatly by Sunday afternoon. It will be much cooler with a stiff northwest wind. Daytime highs will only reach the middle 60s on Sunday and Monday, and it will get as cold as the 30s with some scattered frost by Monday morning.

Our next chance of substantial rain will come Wednesday of next week, but that one does not have a "severe" look to it.

For the latest weather coverage for your area, click here. And stay updated with alerts in the WVTM 13 app. You can download it here.

Showers end overnight, Friday looks breezy and warm, and severe storms arrive late

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SHORT-TERM AND ECLIPSE VIEWING

ALERT DAY: FRIDAY

ALERT DAY: SATURDAY

AFTER THE STORMS

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